I love this time of the year: baseball playoffs, football in full swing. I think the Mets can get to the World Series without Pedro Martinez; friend Fred certainly hopes so – (Sept.28 & 29).
The Wall Street Journal is an interesting place to read about baseball. There was an article on September 27, Playoff Seats Get Harder to Score; Rank-and-File Fans Shut Out As Season Ticket Holders Gobble Up a Bigger Share. It reads that there is a “push by baseball teams to sell more season tickets by offering them in smaller packages and with extra perks, including early dibs on playoff seats. Some teams now offer a half-dozen different season-ticket packages — including ones for as few as six games.”
The WSJ of September 29 suggests that Batting Average Against is a far better reflection of post-season success than any other regular season factor. “Last year, in all six division and league championship series, the winner sported the better BAA. In 2004, it was five out of six. And since the beginning of divisional play in 1995, teams with the better BAA have won 43 of 66 series. That’s a remarkable .652 winning percentage.”
This means the San Diego Padres, the NL West champions on the last day, with a .250 BAA, should win the World Series. Other teams who were still in contention at the time of the article:
Detroit Tigers (.254 BAA). AL Wild Card. Swept by the KC Royals, who, to be fair, were thorns in the sides of a number of teams down the stretch. But now they have to go to Yankee Stadium, rather than host Oakland. Yikes! But the odds ARE in the Tigers’ favor, BAA-wise.
New York Mets (.255 BAA). First in the NL East, won a couple games at the end of the season. I’m STILL gonna pick them to win it all, even without Pedro (.220 BAA).
Houston Astros (.257 BAA). Eliminated on the last day; could have won the division if they could have only beaten the tomahawk-choppin’ Braves. I choose not to believe the allegations about Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte re: performance-enhancing drugs until provided further evidence.
New York Yankees (.262 BAA). 1st in the AL East. Looking formidable.
Minnesota Twins (.267 BAA). 1st in the AL Central. I heard that they’re the first team to never have been in first place solo until the last day of the season.
St. Louis Cardinals (.269 BAA). 1st in NL Central, though they backed in. My favorite Cards fan, Lou at the Y, has been saying for weeks, “Stick a fork in them. They’re done.”
Los Angeles Dodgers (.269). NL Wild Card. I’d swear that every team in this division was in first place at some point.
Oakland A’s (.270). 1st in AL West. Because a lot of their games are late in the east, I don’t see/hear as much about them as I should.
Philadelphia Phillies (.275). Eliminated on the last weekend. Yes, I want Ryan Howard for MVP, though I feel badly for St. Louis’ Albert Pujols, who came in second to Barry Bonds a couple times, and now will come in second, I’m guessing, to the sophomore Howard.
Speaking of Barry Bonds, he’s the National League all-time home run leader with 734, surpassing Hank Aaron, who had 733 for the Braves, and 22 for the (then-American League) Brewers. I’m waiting for the movement to attribute all of the Brewers’ games to the NL.
If you’re a serious sabermetric-type baseball fan, you’ll just HAVE to look at another September 29 WSJ article, “Baseball’s Greatest Hits; We Rank the Most Decisive Postseason Clutch Hits; Apologies to Mr. Dent”, which concludes a 7th inning double that only tied the game is THE most significant hit in baseball post-season history, while Yankee Bucky Dent’s homer against the Red Sox in 1978 doesn’t even make the Top 10.
The Immortals
We ranked some of the biggest clutch hits in postseason history in four categories to see which one was the most significant. Categories include how much the hit improved the team’s chances of winning the game, how much winning the game improved the team’s odds of winning the World Series, the inning in which it happened (later innings count for more) and the odds of the opposing pitcher giving up that type of hit (or greater). The score is the average of all four categories on a percentile basis (the best possible score would be 100).
PLAYER/TEAM: 1. Tony Womack, Arizona Diamondbacks SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2001 WS Game 7, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 39%/83% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: M. Rivera (2.9%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +50% SCORE: 86.2 COMMENTS: Surprise! This overlooked one-out, game-tying double in Game 7 is baseball’s greatest clutch hit.
PLAYER/TEAM: 2. Bill Mazeroski, Pittsburgh Pirates SERIES/GAME/INNING: 1960 WS Game 7, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 65%/100%* ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: R. Terry (2.2%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +50% SCORE: 84 COMMENTS: The only Game 7 walkoff World Series HR in history, but the Pirates, playing at home with a tie score, already had a 65% chance of winning.
PLAYER/TEAM: 3. Kirk Gibson, Los Angeles Dodgers SERIES/GAME/INNING: 1988 WS Game 1, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 13%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: D. Eckersley (1.8%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +16% SCORE: 81 COMMENTS: This oft-televised Game 1 pinch-hit, two-out, two-run, come-from-behind walkoff HR off Dennis Eckersley (5 HRs allowed all season) actually lives up to the hype.
PLAYER/TEAM: 4. Bobby Thomson, New York Giants SERIES/GAME/INNING: 1951 NL Playoff Game 3, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 31%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: R. Branca (2.2%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +25% SCORE: 80.78 COMMENTS: HR erased a two-run deficit to beat rival Brooklyn Dodgers in final game of a division playoff. But new book “The Echoing Green” shows the Giants were stealing signs.
PLAYER/TEAM: 5. Tris Speaker, Boston Red Sox SERIES/GAME/INNING: 1912 WS Game 8, 10th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 39%/ 83% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: C. Mathewson (2.5%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +50% SCORE: 80.77 COMMENTS: One-out, game-tying single with two runners on set up game-winning sacrifice by a teammate. Christy Mathewson was pitching his 29th inning of the series.
PLAYER/TEAM: 6. Joe Carter, Toronto Blue Jays SERIES/GAME/INNING: 1993 WS Game 6, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 39%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: M. Williams (1%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +25% SCORE: 78.8 COMMENTS: Just the second walkoff HR to end a World Series. Only knock is that it happened in Game 6, not Game 7.
PLAYER/TEAM: 7. Edgar Renteria, Florida Marlins SERIES/GAME/INNING: 1997 WS Game 7, 11th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 66%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: C. Nagy (25.5%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +50% SCORE: 78.2 COMMENTS: Bases-loaded World-Series-winning single would rank higher if the pitcher had been tougher.
PLAYER/TEAM: 8. Francisco Cabrera, Atlanta Braves SERIES/GAME/INNING: 1992 NLCS Game 7, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 24%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: S. Belinda (19.4%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +25% SCORE: 78.19 COMMENTS: Francisco who? This forgotten pinch-hit, two-run, bases-loaded come-from-behind walkoff single against Pittsburgh ranks among the greats.
PLAYER/TEAM: 9. Joe Morgan, Cincinnati Reds SERIES/GAME/INNING: 1975 WS Game 7, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 51%/84% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: J. Burton (25%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +50% SCORE: 77.7 COMMENTS: HR by Boston’s Carlton Fisk in Game 6 is better known, but Mr. Morgan’s top-of-the-ninth single won it all.
PLAYER/TEAM: 10. Scott Brosius, NY Yankees SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2001 WS Game 5, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER THE HIT: 4%/54% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: B. Kim (2.6%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +50% SCORE: 75.6 COMMENTS: Some Yankee fans had already left when Mr. Brosius uncorked this two-out, game-tying HR. The Yankees won the game three innings later.
*100% denotes a game-ending hit —
The Recent Best
While Tony Womack’s double and Scott Brosius’s home run were the only postseason hits in the last five years that made our list of the best in baseball history (see above), there have been many other great clutch swings since 2001. Here’s our top 10, minus Messrs. Womack and Brosius.
PLAYER/TEAM: 1. Luis Gonzalez, Arizona D’backs SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2001 WS Game 7, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 84%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: M. Rivera (19.7%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +50% SCORE: 74.1 COMMENTS: His single iced the game, but Arizona had an 84% chance of winning before it happened.
PLAYER/TEAM: 2. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2005 NLCS Game 5, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 5%/83% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: B. Lidge (1.7%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +6% SCORE: 73.8 COMMENTS: This titanic two-out, three-run, come-from-behind HR off Houston’s Brad Lidge forced a Game 6.
PLAYER/TEAM: 3. Mark Grace, Arizona D’backs SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2001 WS Game 7, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 19%/32% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: M. Rivera (19.7%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +50% SCORE: 73.6 COMMENTS: Leadoff single didn’t drive in a run, but sparked Arizona’s epic come-from-behind win.
PLAYER/TEAM: 4. Tino Martinez, NY Yankees SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2001 WS Game 4, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 4%/54% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: B. Kim (2.6%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +19% SCORE: 72.4 COMMENTS: Yankee Stadium rocked when this two-out, two-run HR off Byung-Hyun Kim sent the game to extra innings.
PLAYER/TEAM: 5. Aaron Boone, NY Yankees SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2003 ALCS Game 7, 11th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 65% / 100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: T. Wakefield (2.6%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +25% SCORE: 71.4 COMMENTS: Red Sox fans won’t soon forget this leadoff solo HR, which capped a Yankee comeback.
PLAYER/TEAM: 6. Derek Jeter, NY Yankees SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2001 WS Game 4, 10th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 54%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: B. Kim (2.6%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +19% SCORE: 71.1 COMMENTS: One inning after Mr. Martinez’s HR (see No. 4), Mr. Jeter evened the series with a two-out walkoff job.
PLAYER/TEAM: 7. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2005 WS Game 2, 7th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 24%/90% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: C. Qualls (2.1%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +16% SCORE: 69.5 COMMENTS: Rare WS grand slam against Houston would have ranked higher, but it came in the 7th inning.
PLAYER/TEAM: 8. Scott Podsednik, Chicago White Sox SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2005 WS Game 2, 9th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 60%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: B. Lidge (1.7%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +16% SCORE: 68.39 COMMENTS: This one-out HR, which came two innings after Mr. Konerko’s (No. 7), was only Mr. Podsednik’s second that year.
PLAYER/TEAM: 9. Alex Gonzalez, Florida Marlins SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2003 WS Game 4, 12th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 65%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: J. Weaver (2.2%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +19% SCORE: 68.37 COMMENTS: While hitting only .256, Mr. Gonzalez evened this series against the Yankees with this walk-off HR.
PLAYER/TEAM: 10. Ivan Rodriguez, Florida Marlins SERIES/GAME/INNING: 2003 NLDS Game 3, 11th ODDS OF WINNING GAME BEFORE/AFTER HIT: 24%/100% ODDS OF PITCHER GIVING UP HIT: T. Worrell (22.1%) ODDS OF WINNING THE WS: +6% SCORE: 68.2 COMMENTS: Though it came in a division series game, this bases-loaded, two-out single overcame huge odds.
Meanwhile, while I was looking for the scores of the Twins and Tigers games on Sunday – they were tied for the AL Central lead, just as the Dodgers and Padres were tied in the NL West, I watched the last five minutes of the Jets-Colts game, where the Colts scored a touchdown, the Jets had a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, then the Colts scored another touchdown (why did the Jets burn a timeout on defense when the Colts were at their 16?). The Jets tried to come back, lateraling the ball at least a half dozen times before fumbling it – it was very exciting – but they didn’t have enough time.
President Bush is sending a delegation to Hungary to recognize the 50th anniversary of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution later this month. Among the travelers will be George Pataki, New York’s departing governor (does anyone outside of New York and Iowa know that he’s actually considering a run for the Presidency?), whose grandfather is Hungarian; and Pete Gogolak, a placekicker for the Buffalo Bills and NY Giants, whose “family arrived in the United States in 1957, following the Hungarian revolution”.
