Day: October 21, 2006

Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2006
“People are bewildered because of the weak response by the Americans. They used to patrol the city every day, but when the violence started, we didn’t see any sign of them.” – Unidentified Balad (Iraq) Resident, asking why American troops had not intervened when sectarian killings had begun

“The President has made it obvious, we’re going to win. And that means, ultimately, providing an Iraq that is safe, secure, and an ally in the war on terror.” – Tony Snow, the White House spokesman responded when asked if the U.S. is winning the war in Iraq

Monday, Oct. 16, 2006
“The fact is, America has achieved successes here by removing a dictatorship and establishing a stable, democratic system.” – Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi leader, during an interview

“It’s not going to be ‘stay the course.’ The bottom line is, [current U.S. policy] isn’t working… there’s got to be another way.” – Iraq Options Committee Participant, on the one thing on which the 10-member panel has reached a unanimous consensus

So my questions are:

1. What do you think will be the US position in Iraq in six months, in a year? I’m increasingly convinced that the Baker panel, whose report will come out after the elections, will have a timetable – the same term, or a euphemism meaning the same thing – that will give political cover to the Administration that it had “stayed the course” while, in fact, cutting their losses, not to be confused with “cutting and running”. There will be lots of troop in the region, probably in Kuwait.

2. The Democrats need 15 seats to take the House and 6 to take the Senate. How do they do? I think the Democrats might barely take the House (16-20 seats). The Senate could go either way (5-7 seats).