My Oscar predictions, 2013 films edition

For whatever strange reason, I’ve watched the Academy Awards for decades, more often on DVD or on tape than live in recent years, but still. It’s NOT to find out who won because I can read THAT in the newspaper the next day; it’s what they say, and how they say it. The program will be on Sunday, March 2 this year; they’ve been bouncing around the date in recent years, in late March for a long time, then late February.

Oscar picks don’t always go to the BEST film or performance, but some other socio-political and popularity factors. I haven’t even seen all the films, but that never stopped me before from predicting the winners.
* Indicates I saw it

Best Picture:
“American Hustle”
“Captain Phillips”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Gravity”
“Her”
“Nebraska”
“Philomena”
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”

Is this the largest list of movies for which I need to make a parenthetical reference that it’s a movie? Gravity, Her, and Nebraska all make lousy indexing terms. (Here’s a futurist reviewing Her, and missing the point.)

As for the winner, I’d pick 12 Years a Slave. It’s well-reviewed, it’s important, and it allows Hollywood to show how progressive it is. Yet, I’m feeling unsure because the Oscars uses Instant Runoff Voting, where one ranks the pictures, a good way to get a consensus choice.

So fans that like Wolf the best, and those who pick 12 years as their favorite, both tend to pick American Hustle as their second or third pick among nominated films; if Hustle wins, it would not be a shock.

Best Supporting Actor:
Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips”
Bradley Cooper, “American Hustle”
Jonah Hill, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Michael Fassbender, “12 Years a Slave”
Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club”

Jared Leto at some point was supposed to be the Next Big Thing, and wasn’t. He disappears into this role. (If not him, then Abdi.)

Best Supporting Actress:
Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine”
Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”
Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Julia Roberts, “August: Osage County”
June Squibb, “Nebraska”

The Academy loves picking non-familiar people here. Lawrence won an Oscar too recently, and lots of people hated Osage County. Sally Hawkins has worked well in a few films, but it’s going to be between a woman who’s been a working actress for six decades (June Squibb, who was fine) or another virtual unknown. I pick Lupita Nyong’o

Best Director:
David O. Russell, “American Hustle”
Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”
*Alexander Payne, “Nebraska”
Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave”
Martin Scorsese, “The Wolf of Wall Street”

Gravity might have won Best Picture in another year, but as a consolation prize gets Alfonso Cuaron a trophy. He’s already won the Director’s Guild award.

Best Actor:
Christian Bale, “American Hustle”
Bruce Dern, “Nebraska”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Wolf of Wall Street”
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave”
*Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyer’s Club”

The Oscar math favors MM: change in career trajectory, from doing romcoms to doing serious stuff + great physical change (lost 47 pounds for the role) + noteworthy role in ANOTHER film (Wolf of Wall Street) + great performance in the nominated film. If not him, then DiCaprio, because Hollywood also likes the hyphenates: actor-producer.

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”
Sandra Bullock, “Gravity”
Judi Dench, “Philomena”
*Meryl Streep, “August: Osage County”

If the Pope were voting, it might be for Judi Dench; the movie was viewed by Francis, and he’s met the real Philomena, along with movie creator Steve Coogan. It won’t be Streep, who won too recently. Of the other three, they really like Sandy, but she won too recently. Most of the early awards went to Cate Blanchett, but I wonder about the Woody Allen backlash. So I’m going with Amy Adams, who has paid her dues in other films, who was in another nominated film, Her, looking quite different, and who was in a cast that won Best Ensemble at the Golden Globes, but there’s no such category in the Oscars.

Best Original Screenplay:
“American Hustle”
“Blue Jasmine”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Her”
*”Nebraska”

Wow, saw all five! American Hustle, I’m thinking, as another way to honor a well-liked film that’s not going to beat 12 Years or Gravity for Best Picture. Though I wouldn’t be shocked if Her won; that sounds like such bad grammar.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
“Before Midnight”
“Captain Phillips”
*”Philomena”
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf Of Wall Street”

I’ll say again how I loved Philomena. But this goes to 12 Years A Slave.

Best Animated Feature:
“The Croods”
“Despicable Me 2”
“Ernest & Celestine”
*”Frozen”
“The Wind Rises”

Two of these, E&C and Wind, didn’t even have wide releases. Frozen was great, and certainly was far better than the other two.

Best Foreign Feature:
“The Broken Circle Breakdown,” Belgium
“The Great Beauty,” Italy
“The Hunt,” Denmark
“The Missing Picture,” Cambodia
“Omar,” Palestine

Broken City Breakdown, which I’ve seen the previews for, felt like an American film, with American country singing without accents. But my guess is The Great Beauty, which has reviewed quite well.

Best Visual Effects:
*”Gravity”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation”
“Iron Man 3”
“The Lone Ranger”
“Star Trek Into Darkness”

I’m guessing Gravity.

Best Cinematography:
“The Grandmaster”
“Gravity”
“Inside Llewyn Davis”
*”Nebraska”
“Prisoners”

The three I saw looked good. I’ll guess Nebraska, just because of that great black and white, though Gravity wouldn’t surprise.

Best Costume Design:
*”American Hustle”
“The Grandmaster”
“The Great Gatsby”
“The Invisible Woman”
“12 Years a Slave”

American Hustle did catch the 1970s well, but I heard great things about Gatsby, so I’ll guess that.

Best Documentary Feature:
“The Act of Killing”
“Cutie and the Boxer”
“Dirty Wars”
“The Square”
*“20 Feet from Stardom”

I really did enjoy the one film I saw. But The Act of Killing sounds AMAZING: “A documentary that challenges former Indonesian death-squad leaders to reenact their real-life mass-killings in whichever cinematic genres they wish, including classic Hollywood crime scenarios and lavish musical numbers.” The movie reviews I’ve watched were slackjawed at how much these people revealed.

Best Documentary Short:
“CaveDigger”
“Facing Fear”
“Karama Has No Walls”
“The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
“Prisoner Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall”

No clue.

Best Film Editing:
“American Hustle”
“Captain Phillips”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Gravity”
“12 Years a Slave”

I’m guessing 12 Years.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
*”Dallas Buyers Club”
“Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa”
“The Lone Ranger”

I just don’t see either of the latter ones winning, regardless of the actual skills involved. DBC.

Best Music (Original Score):
“The Book Thief”
“Gravity”
“Her”
“Philomena”
“Saving Mr. Banks”

I’ll pick Her because I liked it best, of the ones I’ve seen.

Best Music (Original Song):
“Alone Yet Not Alone” from “Alone Yet Not Alone”
“Happy” from “Despicable Me”
*”Let It Go” from “Frozen”
“The Moon Song” from “Her”
“Ordinary Love” from “Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom”

My daughter’s been singing the song from Frozen ever since she saw the movie.

Best Production Design:
“American Hustle”
“Gravity”
“The Great Gatsby”
*”Her”
“12 Years a Slave”

Not my best category, so I tend to go with the front-runner, 12 Years.

Best Short Film, Animated:
Best Short Film, Live Action:
Won’t see them before the Oscars, but if they are still in town on my birthday, I plan to see them all and second-guess the Academy.

Best Sound Editing:

“All Is Lost”
“Captain Phillips”
*”Gravity”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“The Lone Survivor”

One of the Lord of the Rings movies won this a few years back, so I’ll go with The Hobbit, though Gravity was great.

Best Sound Mixing:
“Captain Phillips”
“Gravity”
“The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug”
“Inside Llewyn Davis”
“Lone Survivor”

Sometimes this where a film that would otherwise win nothing else picks up a win. So I’ll guess Llewyn Davis, though again, Gravity is most deserving.