Roger O Green

Demographics of cigarette smoking

The Great American Smokeout

When I posted about the Great American Smokeout in a recent year, someone pointed out, as I had mentioned, that cigarette smoking is on the decline.

I want to look at the demographics of cigarette smoking. Check out this CDC report.

28.1% of adults who regularly had feelings of severe psychological distress were smokers, compared with 10.9% without such feelings. Is there a causal connection? I don’t know.

18.5% of adults with a disability smoke, compared with 10.9% of adults without a disability (10.9%). Did smoking aggravate the disability? IDK that either.

Current cigarette smoking was highest among persons who were divorced/separated or widowed (16.8%) and lowest among those who were married or living with a partner (10.4%).

Money

But I was most intrigued by this:

Current cigarette smoking was higher among people with a lower annual household income than those with higher annual household incomes.

About 18 of every 100 adults with low income (18.3%)
About 12 of every 100 adults with middle income (12.3%)
Nearly 7 of every 100 adults with high income (6.7%)

This tracks why I see more people at the bus stop smoking cigarettes. I love public transportation, but let’s face it: more people who use it regularly tend to have a lower economic profile than the general public.

I was particularly taken aback when waiting for a bus to go downtown last month. There was a guy who was looking on the ground finding cigarette butts that had only been partially smoked to pick up to use at a later date. It was so disturbing that I almost wanted to walk to the corner store and buy him a pack.

I haven’t bought a pack of cigarettes for decades. It was usually for my father – his brand was Winstons – who was a smoker for many years before he got emphysema. He stopped, got better, and then started smoking again. Admittedly, I was really ticked off.

Eventually, he stopped again and stayed that way for the last 30 years of his life. I keep reminding people of the Great American Smoke Out because I’ve had several people who have died from smoking, most notably my grandma Agatha Green, at age 62.

Frequently, I hear people suggesting that poor people should give up a bad habit because it’s so expensive. I have not bought into this mindset. Being poor is HARD.

Still, the folks at the Great American Smokeout have strategies to encourage folks to give up the coffin nails.

Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot

surgery named for a pitcher

The Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot was announced recently. “The Committee will meet on Dec. 8 at baseball’s Winter Meetings in Dallas…” These are folks who weren’t selected through other means.

“The Classic Baseball Era ballot includes Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker, and Luis Tiant. Among the candidates, Garvey, John, and Parker are living.”

I immediately recognized the names of all the players, save for Harris and Donaldson, who played and managed in the Negro Leagues. Based on the resumes, I imagine they should be in.

“Donaldson pitched in the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues for more than 30 years, earning a reputation as one of the best pitchers in the game. Also playing the outfield and managing, Donaldson helped establish the barnstorming business model that was profitable for Black teams for decades.”

“Harris played 18 seasons in the Negro Leagues, primarily as a left fielder for the legendary Homestead Grays. He compiled a .303 career batting average and was known as one of the most aggressive base runners in the Negro National League. Harris also managed the Grays for 11 seasons, winning seven Negro National League pennants and the 1948 World Series.”

But what of the others? Bill James has come up with a series of sabermetric markers.

Dick Allen

Allen “played 15 seasons from 1963 to 77 for five teams, compiling 351 home runs, 1,119 RBIs, and a .292 career average. He was named the 1972 AL Most Valuable Player and the 1964 NL Rookie of the Year, with seven career All-Star selections.” While he never got more than 18.9% of the standard BBWAA path to the Hall, the last two times he received 68.8% of the Veterans Committee, below the 75% threshold.

Allen’s batting – 99 (184th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100, so he’s around that.

Similar batters:

Ryan Braun (933.6)
Bryce Harper (906.0)
Lance Berkman (903.2)
Reggie Smith (894.0)
Ellis Burks (890.8)
Brian Giles (889.9)
Larry Doby (884.9) *
Jermaine Dye (880.7)
George Foster (880.1)
Mike Trout (877.9)

* – Signifies Hall of Famer

Borderline.

Ken Boyer

“Boyer played 15 seasons as a third baseman…, earning 11 All-Star Game selections and winning the 1964 National Leagu Most Valuable Player Award en route to leading the Cardinals to a World Series championship.”

His high vote count for BBWAA was 25.5% On the Veterans Committee, his high was 18.8%, but he got zero votes the three times he was considered.

Batting – 36 (215th), Average HOFer ≈ 50

However, he won five Gold Gloves.

Similar Batters

Bobby Bonilla (906.7)
Cy Williams (897.7)
Reggie Smith (895.5)
Del Ennis (894.3)
Paul O’Neill (888.8)
Robin Ventura (886.2)
Fred Lynn (885.7)
George Hendrick (883.7)
Ron Cey (877.2)
Ron Santo (874.1) *

* – Signifies Hall of Famer

I wouldn’t vote for him.

Steve Garvey

“Garvey compiled a .294 career average over 19 major league seasons… amassing 2,599 hits, 272 home runs, 1,308 RBI, and 10 All-Star Game selections. He hit .338 with 11 home runs and 31 RBI in 11 postseason series… Garvey won four Gold Glove Awards.”

Separately, “Rep. Adam B. Schiff, a Burbank Democrat, defeated former Dodgers All-Star Steve Garvey, a Palm Desert Republican, to represent California in the U.S. Senate. He will serve out the remainder of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s term, which ends in early January, and, separately, serve a subsequent six-year Senate term.”

He reached 42.6% of the vote with the BBWAA, and after being shut out by the Veterans thrice, he got 37.5% of the vote in 2020/

Batting – 131 (115th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Garret Anderson (913.7)
Al Oliver (889.5)
John Olerud (865.4)
Rubén Sierra (859.5)
Mickey Vernon (857.1)
Bill Buckner (855.5)
Cecil Cooper (853.8)
Orlando Cepeda (853.3) *
Will Clark (849.4)
Mark Grace (847.2)

* – Signifies Hall of Famer

Even though he is a fiscal and personal disaster, he’s probably worthy based on his talent.

Tommy John

“John pitched 26 seasons …finishing his career… with a record of 288-231 and 3.34 ERA. His 700 career starts rank eighth on the all-time list, and his 4,710.1 innings rank 20th all-time. A four-time All-Star Game selection – three of which came following his groundbreaking elbow surgery in 1974…”

Tommy John surgery is half a century old. This CBS News story notes that currently, “about 60% of Tommy John surgery recipients are under 19.” which is problematic.

His chase for the Hall peaked at 31.7% in his last year of eligibility. He’s received zero votes from four Veterans Committees.

Pitching – 112 (85th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Similar Pitchers

Jim Kaat (923.3) *
Robin Roberts (898.2) *
Bert Blyleven (889.5) *
Fergie Jenkins (885.4) *
Early Wynn (869.8) *
Tom Glavine (865.5) *
Burleigh Grimes (865.2) *
Tony Mullane (864.0)
Don Sutton (861.6) *
Eppa Rixey (857.3) *

* – Signifies Hall of Famer

Look at those inning-eating pitchers in the Hall. Tommy John belongs.

Dave Parker

“Parker compiled a .290 career average over 19 major league seasons…and amassed 339 home runs, 1,493 RBI, and two batting titles (1977-78). The 1978 NL Most Valuable Player was named to seven All-Star games and won three Gold Glove Awards in right field.” He is in the Pittsburgh Pirates Hall of Fame.

His highest BBWAA vote count was 24.5% in his second year of eligibility. But, after being shut out by two Veterans committees, he got 43.8% of their vote in 2020.

Batting – 125 (121st), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Similar Batters

Luis Gonzalez (907.1)
Torii Hunter (906.8)
Tony Pérez (895.7) *
Billy Williams (883.9) *
Garret Anderson (874.5)
Harold Baines (871.6) *
Andre Dawson (865.2) *
Al Oliver (862.7)
Chili Davis (859.1)
Rusty Staub (857.1)

* – Signifies Hall of Famer

Yes, for Parker.

Luis Tiant

Tiant, who died October 8, 2024, “won at least 20 games in four of his 19 big league seasons… finishing his career with 229 wins and a 3.30 ERA while earning three All-Star Game selections. He won two American League ERA titles, including a 1.60 ERA in 1968, and led the league in shutouts three times.”

After getting 30.9% of the BBWAA in his first year of eligibility, he never got out of the teens thereafter. He received 18-25% of the Veterans vote in his first three tries but zero in the last three.

Pitching – 97 (111th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100

Similar Pitchers

Catfish Hunter (942.3) *
Jim Bunning (931.1) *
Billy Pierce (922.0)
Vida Blue (921.1)
Mickey Lolich (913.4)
Don Drysdale (913.3) *
Jim Perry (908.6)
Kevin Brown (903.0)
Hooks Dauss (900.7)
Orel Hershiser (898.3)

* – Signifies Hall of Famer

Just shy.

If I could vote, I’d pick Donaldson, Harris, John, and Parker.

Nancy Frank (1938-2024)

countless organ recitals

Though I joined the choir at First Presbyterian Church in 2000, I had forgotten that I had met the organist there, Nancy Frank, well before that year. First Pres is one of the FOCUS churches. Periodically, members of the then-five churches would sing at one of the other churches. When I was singing at Trinity UMC in the 1980s and 1990s, I knew, even from the brief time I spent with her every two years or so, she was an amazingly kind, gracious, patient, and extraordinarily talented musician.

One of the choir members, who joined the FPC choir a couple of decades before I did, noted that the organ had been recessed behind a wall. When a renovation was needed, Nancy successfully lobbied to make the instrument visible to the congregation. Indeed, while unnecessary, she became a longtime church member, serving on the Worship Committee and helping shape the evolving service.

She was really good at what she did. At her funeral on November 16, one of her sons noted that she could dissect recorded music, identifying the various instrumentation as though she were at the recording. He also noted she started taking . She started taking “Gentle Ballet” classes in her eighties!

There was a February 21, 2015, article about her in the Times Union, which you should be able to read (if I did it right). Faces of Faith: Organist sits in pew, after 42 years. She said, “I went back to school when our children were all in college. I graduated summa cum laude the same year that our older son, Ken, graduated. My organ composition, ‘Postlude on Lauda Anima,” received a UAlbany Presidential Award.”

As her obituary noted, Nancy began piano lessons at the age of seven and then added organ lessons at the age of 12. In the Capital Region since 1958, she has offered countless organ recitals, performing with various groups. Nancy was active in the American Guild of Organists, twice serving as Dean of the Eastern New York Chapter.

Personal touch

But this is not how I best remember her. It wasn’t her tremendous playing of the service musicianship, especially on the weekly postludes.

She was a sweetheart of a human being. “Nancy loved to laugh and entertain, and she was known for her annual summer picnics. “She often had the choir over for parties at the home she and her husband of 66 years, Wes, owned. Nancy kept track of the choir birthdays.

So when she died, I cried, even though she had been fighting leukemia for a couple of years. The very small consolation is that Wes made a series of CDs of the choir’s Advent and Good Friday performances that I can remember her by. Also, I stumbled upon a 2001 CD of hers on eBay that I just ordered.

From the TU piece: “The choir will be singing one of my favorite anthems, ‘Greater Love Hath No Man,’ by John Ireland, as well as an anthem that I wrote, ‘O Be Joyful in the Lord,’ based on Psalm 100. For the postlude, I will be playing one of my favorite pieces, “Toccata from Symphony V” by Charles-Marie Widor.”

She played a great Widor. The choir would still be in the loft as the sound surrounded us like a blanket. Here’s a recording by Frederick Hohman (2008) and another by Jonathan Scott. Nancy’s, I think, was better.

‘

Appropriately, Nancy Frank is in the middle of things. Hmm. More than half a dozen of the folks in this 2015 picture have passed away.

American Kakistocracy on steroids

stunningly unqualified

Back in 2017, Norm Ornstein wrote about the American Kakistocracy for The Atlantic. “There’s a case to be made that the United States is governed by the least scrupulous of its citizens.” And now we are an American Kakistocracy on steroids.

2017: “Kakistocracy is a term that was first used in the 17th century; derived from a Greek word, it means, literally, government by the worst and most unscrupulous people among us. More broadly, it can mean the most inept and cringeworthy kind of government. The term fell into disuse over the past century or more, and most highly informed people have never heard it before (but to kids familiar with the word “kaka” it might resonate).”

“As I wrote my new book with E.J. Dionne and Tom Mann, One Nation Under Trump, I kept returning to the term. Kakistocracy is back, and we are experiencing it firsthand in America. The unscrupulous element has come into sharp focus in recent weeks as a string of Trump Cabinet members and White House staffers have been caught spending staggering sums of taxpayer dollars to charter jets, at times to go small distances where cheap commercial transportation was readily available, at times to conveniently visit home areas or have lunch with family members.”

I use the term “on steroids” intentionally. This is a term that djt used to describe the embarrassing failed North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson. He was “like Martin Luther King on steroids.” This is an insult to both Martin Luther King and steroids.

What’s happening now, and it’s changing so rapidly that it’s difficult to encapsulate, is that any sense of guardrails or normalcy is out the window. As I used to say too often, though it’s still accurate, The trouble with normal is it always gets worse.

Another appropriate word for right now is ‘recrudescence’ (17th century): “the return of something terrible after a time of reprieve.”

Elon

Undoubtedly, you’ve heard how the Dems ran too far to the left or too far to the center or were too “woke,” or whatever. What I think is mostly true is that the Republicans were better able to define the Democrats than the Dems.

“Muslims in Michigan began seeing pro-Israel ads this fall praising Vice President Kamala Harris for marrying a Jewish man and backing the Jewish state. Jews in Pennsylvania, meanwhile, saw ads from the same group with the opposite message: Harris wanted to stop U.S. arms shipments to Israel.

“Another group promoted ‘Kamala’s bold progressive agenda’ to conservative-leaning Donald Trump voters, while a third filled the phones of young liberals with videos about how Harris had abandoned the progressive dream. Black voters in North Carolina were told Democrats wanted to take away their menthol cigarettes, while working-class White men in the Midwest were warned that Harris would support quotas for minorities and deny them Zyn nicotine pouches.

“What voters had no way of knowing at the time was that all of the ads were part of a single $45 million effort created by political advisers to Tesla founder Elon Musk.”

It doesn’t feel like just another election. The Hollywood Reporter, of all things, notes: “The results came as a shock to large swaths of the nation who had hoped that the election of… Harris would protect the United States from the kind of fascism sweeping across the world. But for some — communities of color and queer and trans people, for example— Trump’s re-election only reaffirmed nightmares about a country whose major civil rights gains are young when compared to its oppressive history.”

Cabinet

It appears there are two types of his Cabinet appointments: the totally unqualified and the merely unfortunate.

47 selected, for his Attorney General, a person who Ben Domenech, a “big noise in conservative circles [who is] a co-founder of The RedState group blog and The Federalist,” despises. The headline of his article, posted to Substack, left no doubt as to the tenor of the piece: “Matt Gaetz is a Vile Sex Pest, and Any Senator Who Votes For Him Owns That.” His selection triggers audible gasps from some Republicans.

Tom Homan

Pete Hegseth is a Fox News TV host who is way out of his league to run an operation as vast as the Defense Department. He had a role in djt’s controversial pardons of men accused of war crimes. He also is waging a war on “woke.”

Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Republican from New York, was picked as an ambassador to the United Nations but not because of her international expertise.

As governor of South Dakota, Kristi Noem has no background in Homeland Security.

The Atlantic called Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic member of Congress from Hawaii, “stunningly unqualified for almost any Cabinet post (as are some of Trump’s other picks), but especially for ODNI. She has no qualifications as an intelligence professional—literally none…. She has no significant experience directing or managing much of anything.”

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s message on vaccines is a medical crisis waiting to happen. And then he says stuff even nuttier.

(Off-topic, but LinkedIn wanted to know if I wanted to follow Vivek Ramaswamy, the “efficiency guy with Musk. “STAND for truth.” No, thank you. )

Here are observations by Common Dreams.

Day 1

Worse than that, Orange is Plotting To Skip The Senate Confirmation Process. He was serious when he said he’d be dictator only on Day 1. This involves the Senate allowing “him to make recess appointments that would skip the otherwise Constitutionally mandated Senate confirmation process.” Reportedly, he “is coordinating with House Speaker Johnson to allow [djt] to force Congress to adjourn under Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution so that he can freely make the recess appointments he wants.”

The Senate could block this if it takes its role of ‘advise and consent’ seriously—otherwise, the extremely tenuous Senate integrity is shot altogether.

Meanwhile, per Red State: “Several conservative groups are currently in a campaign to identify federal employees who are partisan or possibly resistant to enacting Trump’s agenda, according to a CNN report. These groups include the Heritage Foundation Oversight Project and the American Accountability Foundation.

“The organizations have flooded federal agencies with tens of thousands of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests demanding access to emails, personnel records, and other communications between government employees. The effort is part of a comprehensive strategy to lay the groundwork for mass firings of civil servants under Trump’s Schedule F executive order issued in 2020, which was later revoked under President Joe Biden.” I wrote about Schedule F here.

So, am I optimistic? Not really. But one needs to fight the fight anyway. I’m just not sure what that looks like yet.

My mom was a proud black woman

identity

Trudy Green My mom was a proud black woman. I point this out invariably when I end up having conversations about race with a small subset of white Americans. They’ll point out that a certain person may or may not be “really black” because their skin is lighter.

When they make out this observation, they often point out that the reason for the color disparity is the likelihood of rape must have taken place. These presumptions end up bugging me.

Let’s start with a simple Wikipedia definition: “African Americans, also known as Black Americans or Afro-Americans, are an ethnic group consisting of Americans with partial or total ancestry from any of the Black racial groups of Africa. “

Here’s an interesting 2022 Pew Research piece: Race Is Central to Identity for Black Americans and Affects How They Connect With Each Other. Many learn about ancestors and U.S. Black history from family.

I suspect that this trend is changing: “While majorities of all age groups of Black people say being Black shapes how they think about themselves, younger Black Americans are less likely to say this – Black adults ages 50 and older are more likely than Black adults ages 18 to 29 to say that being Black is very or extremely important to how they think of themselves.”

Irish

As my Ancestry breakdown shows, my mother was over 50% Irish. Her paternal grandmother was Margaret Collins, whose parents were almost certainly born in County Cork, Ireland. But she must also have had multiple Irish relatives on her mother’s side, which I haven’t pursued as vigorously. These were very likely consensual relationships.

Still, she always identified as black. As this story about my mom, she leaned into being black even when others were unaware of her ethnicity. It was the antithesis of passing.

Gertrude Elizabeth (Williams) Green, a/k/a Trudy, would Green would have been 97 today. She passed on February 2, 2011. This photo is from my birthday in 2005. But the event was the wedding of her granddaughter Rebecca Jade to Rico.