I fear an Orange win. While it’s been brewing in my mind for a few weeks, it is epitomized in observations made by commenters on ABC This Week on October 13.
RACHAEL BADE, ABC NEWS CONTRIBUTING POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: ‘We’ve been talking about women this entire election, how they’re running away from Trump. Childless cat lady comments, abortion, just Trump’s temperament in general. But… in the final weeks of this election, we are really starting to see that Donald Trump has been very successful with turning out men or at least getting them excited to vote for him.
“And not just conservative men, but men who consider themselves to be…pro-abortion rights, socially liberal men, black men, Latino men. And, you know, I was interviewing one of the more famous focus group analysts, Sarah Longwell, at “The Bulwark,” and she was talking about why, and it sounds like a lot of these men, they don’t view Donald Trump as extreme.
“You might disagree with that. They like him. They think he’s somebody that they would want to hang out with, and he has just been sort of successful and leaning into the strongman mentality that right now, with, you know, all the chaos in the Middle East, with the issues with the hurricanes, she’s hearing more and more in focus groups not just from men but also some women who are reaching for that sort of strongman mentality and starting to second-guess Harris.”
Not extreme?
SUSAN GLASSER, THE NEW YORKER STAFF WRITER: “I think this conversation we’re having, it’s really a question of who, in the end is the election about, and if people’s gaze is focused on Donald Trump, his escalatory rhetoric, I mean, some of the things we’ve seen this week are the most nakedly racist and xenophobic things I’ve ever seen from a national candidate, and that includes Donald Trump in his previous two outings.”
The notion that djt is not an extreme candidate suggests that Americans are more ahistorical people than I had already feared.
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is quoted in Bob Woodward’s new book, War. The general approaches the writer “in a state of panic about the prospect of a Trump revival. ‘No one has ever been as dangerous to this country,’ the general exclaimed. ‘I glimpsed it when I talked to you … for Peril [Woodward’s previous book], but I now know it, I now know it. … We have got to stop him! You have got to stop him! … He’s a total fascist. He is the most dangerous person to this country! … A fascist to the core!’”
Intuition
REP. MIKE JOHNSON, (R) SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: We all know intuitively that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections.
“Intuitively.” The Speaker was on CBS’ Face The Nation. He must “intuitively” know the 2020 election was “rigged” because he played a leading role in Trump’s legal effort to overturn it. He “has made statements in recent weeks suggesting that the certification of the election results is conditional.”
How Harris Can Finish Strong
Meanwhile, New York Times columnist David Brooks notes that “Undecided voters in a Times Opinion focus group were recently asked to describe Kamala Harris’ efforts. They responded with phrases like: ‘honeymoon’s over,’ the paint is wearing off,’ ‘uninspired,’ ‘absent,’ and ‘scared to talk directly to the American people.’ Researchers who have been surveying voter sentiment as the campaign progresses found that there’s been a decline in how voters think about Harris, while sentiment toward Donald Trump has rebounded slightly since the September debate…
“The playwright David Mamet once wrote a memo to a group of fellow writers in which he reminded them that audiences ‘will not tune in to watch information.’ They will ‘only tune in and stay tuned to watch drama.’ What is drama? Mamet says it ‘is the quest of the hero to overcome those things which prevent him from achieving a specific, acute goal.’ The screenwriter Aaron Sorkin builds on that definition. He says that strong drama is built around intention and obstacle. The hero has to be seized by a strong, specific desire, and she needs to face a really big obstacle.”
Passion
“That suggests that Harris needs to show the American people her strongest, most acute, and controlling desire, the ruling passion of her soul. I know what Trump wants. He wants to dismantle the elites who he thinks have betrayed regular Americans. It’s unclear what Harris wants most deeply, other than the vague chance to do good and to be president…Candidates who are not driven by a single, specific, compelling desire become reactive. “
This aligns with what people, even those who are going to vote for her, have been saying to me about how they don’t know what she really thinks, believes, or values.
Yet she’s always working at a disadvantage. Harris’ responses to her battery of recent interviews are being scrutinized, while djt ducked the 60 Minutes interview altogether. He hasn’t released his health records, as she has. Moreover, his supporters stand with him by ‘sussing out rhetoric from reality.’ In other words, many of his loyal fans don’t believe he’ll do what he says he’ll do.
“What’s extraordinary… is the dire and graphic nature of his language.”
More to the point, as an opinion piece in the Boston Globe says: “He’s running a closing-days campaign fueled by falsehood – and it could work. After all, as he demonstrated with his Big Lie about the 2020 election, even his most far-fetched claims can race to the far corners of the country before fact-checkers are able to set off in persuasive pursuit.
“From last week’s assertion that Aurora, Colorado, and other towns have been ‘invaded and conquered’ by ‘vicious and bloodthirsty criminals‘ to his recent description of illegal immigrants as ‘savages,’ ‘predators,’ and ‘animals’ who want to ‘rape, pillage, thieve, plunder, and kill’ Americans, to his ominous warning that migrants ‘grab young girls and slice them up right in front of their parents…,’ it’s trademark Trump, a dark, roiling, racially-tinged rhetorical torrent, unlike anything we’ve seen in any presidential campaign in modern American history.
“That dystopian rhetoric is an obvious attempt to create fear sufficient to move voters beyond his enormous character faults and his well-documented assault on democracy and get them to conclude that however unsavory they find him, he’s the strongman the country needs to solve its supposed problems.”
For reasons involving his cult of personality, 45 is graded on a curve, and he could win in November—probably not the popular vote, but quite possibly the Electoral College. I’d SO love to be wrong.