ARA: the Presidents

undeniable

Kelly, that guy from western New York, asked several questions, two about the Presidents.

One scenario I had in mind when Biden was elected was that he would serve two years–essentially steward the country through the worst of COVID and get the economic recovery going–and then step down, making Harris President. Should he have done so? Would Harris have done better as an incumbent?

One thing I know about Joe Biden is that he is a traditionalist regarding the presidency. Barring extraordinary circumstances, such as severe illness, he would never serve two years and then resign. Only one president in our history resigned from office: Richard Nixon in 1974, less than two years after Joe became the US senator from Delaware.

Moreover, if he had announced too early that he would quit after two, any chance of his agenda being acted upon would have been almost impossible to achieve. I suppose he could have done it secretly and then announced it after the midterms of 2022.

However, completing a president’s agenda in the best situations takes time. There are negotiations to be had, and much of what he achieved was in the latter half of his term. I noticed that FOTUS felt entitled to do everything on Day One, but he didn’t even have his cabinet in place on January 21st.

Secondly, I don’t think he would have ceded the presidency to Kamala Harris in 2022. Many people, including me, thought she was a terrible candidate when she ran for president in 2020. Heck, her campaign didn’t even make it to the election year; she started it in 2019 and ended it in 2019.

HHH redux

Moreover, in 2022, she would have been burdened by immigration and inflation worse than in 2024. Conversely, the Biden support for Israel in the Gaza war harmed her greatly. It would have been like Hubert Humphrey running against LBJ’s Vietnam War in 1968; it would have been even more difficult for Kamala to separate herself from Joe.

She was a much better candidate than I anticipated when she ran in 2024. Still, many people hated the process of her becoming the Democratic nominee; even people I know IRL, who probably voted for her, were appalled by the manner in which she became the pick.

I have intimated before that it would have been a better choice for Joe to decide to be a one-term president much earlier. There have been willing, “successful” one-term presidents before. The most noteworthy in terms of his agenda was James Knox Polk (1845-1849), who managed to win the Mexican War and expand our manifest destiny. I’m not saying this is good, merely that he was triumphant at it.

His inner circle ultimately served him poorly by trying to manage his physical decline. As Dean Phillips suggested, Biden should have stepped down around July 2023. Then, there would have been a primary process that most Democrats would have embraced.

(BTW,  my candidate would have probably been Pete Buttigieg because he spoke so well to the rightwing news crowd, going on their shows regularly; he was like the “FOX whisperer.”)

All that said, I’m not sure that ANYONE could have beaten FOTUS unless the man were indicted shortly after January 2021. Jack Smith’s much-too-late report proves clearly that he was the felon we all knew he was. “But for [his] election and imminent return to the presidency, the office assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial,” the report states.

AotD

On November 22, 2024, Senator John Fetterman told ABC This Week’s Jon Karl: “You have a singular political talent [in FOTUS]. It’s undeniable. …if you’re not afraid to say all of those things, or, and after you survived an assassination, you literally were shot in your head and had the presence of mind to respond, ‘fight, fight, fight.’

“I was driving home from Indiana County (PA) at nine o’clock, and there was a Trump superstore on the side of a road, nine o’clock on Friday night, and people are buying swag. And that really crystallized in, at the assassination [attempt]… the day or two later, you start seeing people wearing shirts with that iconic picture. And, you know, the energy and the anger and, it’s like, wow, I really thought — in fact, I thought that might be ball game.'”

So, FOTUS has mastered the Art of the Deal, in which January 6, 2021, was a stroll through the Capitol. His pardon of the J6 insurrectionists was the final nail in the gaslighting coffin.

“They’re eating their cats” is merely Orange hyperbole. Yet I read how he picks out the lies and errors of others. Joe LIED about not pardoning Hunter. He was wrong about the fact that the Afghan Taliban wouldn’t take over Afghanistan that quickly.

Part of the reason is that many Americans, especially men, preferred Ben Shapiro, “Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, YouTube, and X over the mainstream media,” where Biden and Harris largely operated.  

Perhaps it’s a function of what author Jianwei Xun, in his book about FOTUS and Musk, calls Hypnocracy, a “new form of social control… that… induces a permanent functional trance through algorithmic modulation of collective consciousness… In the era of post-truth and artificial intelligence, power no longer operates through repression but through the manipulation of reality perception.” 

When this question came in, my daughter and I watched the 2005 Charlie the Chocolate Factory movie with Johnny Depp. She suggested that the children that Willy Wonka selected were like FOTUS. Much of the American public was like the indulgent parents who capitulated to their noisy brats.

BHO

What WERE 45 and Obama saying to one another at President Carter’s funeral, anyway?!

“Donald, you know that I think you’re a dipwad. But you’re gonna be president again, much to my consternation. [FOTUS laughs]. So you’re in ‘the club.’ Let’s get together and have a rational conversation somewhere about why you shouldn’t undermine the Panama Canal treaty or blow up NATO by seizing  Greenland and threatening Canada. Hey, if these actions don’t happen, people will think all of this is bluster and that you’ve ‘grown’ into the presidency. This could help your historical reputation!”

US “Bregret” already?

The Indivisible:

As early as late November, I was reading about some voters for the Republican candidate for President feeling regret about their vote. It’s similar to how many people in the United Kingdom felt after the Brexit vote in 2016; they had Bregret.

djt has promised huge tariffs on goods from China. Somehow, Americans didn’t understand that that would likely result in retaliatory tariffs on American goods. Now, he’s suggesting a tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, our largest trading partners, even though we are in a USMCA (NAFTA successor)  agreement that would preclude that from taking place until 2026. 

This is presumably to”teach them a lesson” about US border security. The first rule of tariff wars is that no one wins a tariff war.  If they respond in kind, which Mexico has already promised, this will increase the pain in Americans’ wallets. 

Some contractors and farmers who supported him have talked about how they don’t know what they’re going to do if half of their workers are deported.

12 People Who Had Literally No Idea What Their Trump Vote Meant.

We don’t need no education

Hey, if the federal Department of Education is eliminated – a bill to do so has already been introduced – many of its services will also disappear. That’s the subtext of this link, which notes that Oklahoma has nevertheless found money to buy Bibles, optimally for every classroom.

Now, he says he can’t promise he’ll be able to lower grocery prices. An article in WaPo, behind a paywall, is titled, “After backing Trump, low-income voters hope he doesn’t slash their benefits.” It begins:

NEW CASTLE, Pennsylvania — Lori Mosura goes to the grocery store on a bicycle because she can’t afford to fix her Ford F-150 truck.

“The single mother and her 17-year-old son live in an apartment that is so small she sleeps in the dining room. They receive $1,200 each month in food stamps and Social Security benefits but still come up short. Mosura said she often must decide whether to buy milk or toilet paper.”

Reaganomics redux

Here’s a fun fact from Heather Cox Richardson: “Laura Mannweiler of U.S. News and World Report estimated the worth of Trump’s current roster of appointees to be at least $344.4 billion, more than the gross domestic product of 169 countries. That number does not include Scott Bessent, whose net worth is hard to find. In comparison, Mannweiler notes, the total net worth of the officials in Biden’s Cabinet was about $118 million. 

“The incoming administration will advance a different economic vision. Instead of trying to expand the economy through investment in infrastructure and manufacturing [as the Biden administration did], his team has emphasized cutting taxes for the wealthy and corporations and slashing regulations. The argument behind this approach to the economy is that concentrating wealth in the hands of investors will spur more investment while creating an environment that’s ‘friendly’ to business will create jobs.”It’s classic Reaganomics trickle-down, crony capitalism at its finest.
“Don’t test us.”
After Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and inaugurated in 2009, with solid majorities in the popular and Electoral College votes, Republicans served as the “loyal opposition.” This concept “indicates that the non-governing parties may oppose the actions of the sitting [government] while remaining loyal to the formal source(s) of the government’s power, such as the… constitution.”

I jest. The Tea Party movement simmered up in 2009, clearly a disloyal opposition designed to thwart his efforts at every turn. That he got anything done, especially after his first two years, was pretty miraculous.

Yet the message from this incoming administration and their allies is that the Democrats just should shut up, get out of the way, and let Orange be Orange. Senator Tom Cotton sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin:  “You issued a message to the department the day after the election commenting that the military will follow ‘lawful orders’ from the new president—a thinly veiled and baseless insinuation that [djt] will issue unlawful orders.” Baseless? Eh. Yet, Pete Hegseth, the choice to head Defense, is a train wreck.

Tom Homan, the incoming border czar, “plans to bring harsh consequences to any sanctuary city leader who threatens to hinder efforts by immigration authorities from mass-deporting illegal aliens.”

djt’s sometimes wacky Cabinet nominees shouldn’t need to be confirmed by the Senate! His words should be sufficient for the process. His media censorship arsenal is growing.

Resistance

So what is the response? The Union of Concerned Scientists notes: “We—and our supporters across the country—have a vital role to play in defending the progress we’ve made at the federal level, advancing our goals at the state level, and exposing and pushing back against the abuses that are likely to come. We’re clear about the threats we face, but we must move forward with hope and determination.”  A key tenet is “Protecting democracy, state-by-state.” California is on board.

The Indivisible Guide: A Practical Guide to Democracy on the Brink is encouraging. It acknowledges the need to grieve for a while. I can’t live in despair for the next two or four years, and trust me, it would be very easy for me to do so.   I’m holding onto the frankly uncomfortable thought that there will be a backlash to higher prices and other bad outcomes.

I know that some people are not there yet. Heck. I may not be there myself, but I pride myself on hoping I’ll get there eventually because the alternative is too dismal. There needs to be a response to what Cornel West called “American gangsterism crystallized, honest about itself, unashamed and bold.”

‘A Day of Love’: The president-elect and his allies have spent four years reinventing the Capitol attack — spreading conspiracy theories and weaving a tale of martyrdom for their ultimate political gain.

Hey, what a difference a month makes

Harris/Walz

What a difference a month makes. Like a lot of people, by the time the Republican National Convention was over, I was thoroughly depressed. When Joe Biden was running, he rightly pointed out the risk to democracy if his opponent were elected. Unfortunately, the Republicans said the same thing if the Democrats won.

Even as I heard the calls for Joe Biden to step aside, I couldn’t imagine how that would work out. Kamala Harris’ polling numbers weren’t much better than Joe’s. The pundits also noted that she never got any footing in the 2020 Democratic campaign season, which was true

Do you know who else ran not one but two dismal Presidential campaigns? Joe Biden, who dropped out of the 2008 campaign after faring poorly in Iowa. Of course, Barack Obama then picked him as his running mate.  

So, I am cautiously optimistic. In retrospect, I should have KNOWN that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz would be the Presidential/Veep candidates for the Democrats. I jest. But it feels so right. 

The Republicans are currently on the defensive.  A disoriented djt insists that the attendance at his “rally” on Jan. 6, 2021, before the storming of the Capitol, was larger than the quarter million on August 28, 1963, when MLK Jr. gave his “I Have a Dream” speech. He has fantasized that Joe Biden might somehow snatch back the nomination. People around him say he’s been knocked off his bearings.

Uh-uh

Harris/Walz has pivoted to We’re Not Going Back. Some have criticized it as unduly negative, but I think it’s wonderful. It’s oblique. Go back to what? The time before Roe v. Wade? Before Jan. 6? It’s a counterweight to Make America Great Again, Again.

Now, the GOP candidate is considered ‘Too Old’ by a majority. “Mental Fitness Increasingly Worry Voters.” Like Biden, he can’t pivot to become younger, and touting his alleged prowess in basic cognitive tests isn’t helping. I only wish the press had been harsher on djt earlier, because he’s been saying crazy stuff for quite a while.

Also, several pundits have noted that the “weird” labeling is particularly effective. If one attacks djt on policy, he’ll say his position was misrepresented. But if one points out his mixing up California politician  Willie Brown with another black man, and you say, “That’s weird,” you don’t have to ask if he’s losing it. After Hillary Clinton used “deplorable” to describe MAGA fans, they embraced it, but weird is a different thing.

I should write about tech bro JD Vance and how Silicon Valley owns him, but nah. 

DEI

When Harris got down to her Veep candidates, you knew there would be a white man. That DEI! If you’re gonna have a black South Asian woman, you gotta have a white guy. Walz seems to be the least likely candidate. Gov. Roy Cooper (NC) looks like how a president would have been portrayed in many 1980s disaster films. Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, looks like a policy wonk. US Senator Mark Kelly (AZ) looks like, well, an astronaut. Then there were the forty-somethings, Gov.  Andy Beshear (KY) and US DOT Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

MN governor Tim Walz is the least telegenic, but he has a Midwestern genuineness and a great biography, which people are attracted to. “He tossed off multiple zingers about how ‘creepy and weird as hell’ the Republican ticket. Coach Walz’s sudden rise in the Democratic Party was no accident. And according to the satirical Borowitz Report,  “in an extraordinary show of support from the furry mammals, America’s cats gave a full-throated endorsement to…Walz.”

Interestingly, according to an article published in the National Library of Medicine in 2023, “We vote for the person, not the policies: a systematic review on how personality traits influence voting behaviour.” The GOP candidates and most of their proxies are not very nice people. Their “stolen valor” attack on Walz is overblown, e.g., and is funny coming from the campaign of Captain Bone Spurs.  

RFK, Jr.

When Biden was still poised to be the Democratic candidate, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. seemed to have the chance to be at least a spoiler. His stock is down now, and John Oliver’s skewering on Last Week Tonight didn’t help. 

Worse, from Behan Communications: “Since ‘weird’ seems to be the word of the moment, we thought we’d hop right in with some news about… [the] presidential candidate of the Comic Relief Party.

“Where to begin? With his admission that he dumped a dead bear cub in Central Park 10 years ago? Or that he once had a freezer full of roadkill meat? Or that doctors told him he has a dead worm in his brain? Or that he somehow believes, according to testimony he gave this week in an Albany, N.Y., courtroom, that an intent to move somewhere is ‘the only requirement for residency?'” He has been “disqualified from the New York ballot over his false residence claim.” It’s likely to affect other states where he used that bogus address.

July rambling: Dr. SCOTUS

Gleichschaltung

Dr. SCOTUS Will Now See Your Next Patient – Ron Harman King fears our healthcare lies with those in black robes, not white coats.

Cory Doctorow: Unpersoned about romance writer K Renee and others locked out of their Google docs

CrowdStrike blames test software for taking down 8.5 million Windows machines.

Teaching the Bible in Public Schools

Disputing Errors on Your Tenant Background Check Report

Succeeding in the Post-Wayfair Landscape: Top 3 Trends in Sales Tax Six Years On (yes, this is interesting to a geeky business librarian)

The Nation’s Data at Risk: Meeting America’s Information Needs for the 21st Century

Why Paper Checks Refuse To Die

A neurological disorder stole her voice. Jennifer Wexton takes it back on the House floor.

Quieting Your Inner Critic – Self-Compassion and Other Methods

Navy exonerates Black sailors unjustly punished in 1944 after a deadly California port explosion.

Bob Newhart Was an Everyman With a Comic Voice Like No Other.  The 25 best TV series finales ever. Newhart is #22 and should be much higher. I watched him on Ed Sullivan and his three CBS shows

Whitney Rybeck, ‘Friday the 13th’ Actor and Crash Test Dummy in Seat Belt Ads, Dies at 79

The Worm Charmers: A Florida family coaxes earthworms from the forest floor

Homicide: Life on the Street Finally Gets Streaming Home at Peacock. This was one of my favorite programs.

Oscars: What To Do When You Lose

Now I Know: The Dirty Lyric Snuck Onto The Radio and The Pencil That Told Kids To Do Something They Shouldn’t and A Mountainous Problem With Instant Noodles

Kelly and Sunday Stealing

SSA

“Soon, you will no longer be able to sign in to your online Social Security account using your Social Security username and password. To access Social Security online services, including my Social Security, you will need to create a Login.gov or ID.me account.”

This is a real thing, reported on AARP and CBS Mornings.

“The change affects about 46 million of the roughly 86 million people who have My Social Security accounts, according to an SSA spokesperson.”

POLLYTICKS

How Joe Biden launched his career by beating two unbeatable Republicans

Thank You, President Biden

Weekly Sift: Resolutions and The Two Kinds of Unity, in which I was introduced to the word Gleichschaltung. “It’s an old German engineering term for when you wire a bunch of electrical circuits together under a common master switch. It got applied to German politics in 1933, for reasons that you may recall from history books.” Also, the Kamala surge and Couches, Cat Ladies, and J. D. Vance.

djt Returns to Bad Form — and Gives the Democrats Hope

Immigration, Crime, Politics, and lies and Fact-checking djt’s lies during his RNC acceptance speech

RNC & “Migrant Crime”: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Demagoguery repeats itself

djt Sells Sneakers, Coins, and Trading Cards Imprinted with his Bloody Face

How Kamala’s name is pronounced; even a child can do it

From way back on July 15: ‘Terrified’ – Americans in NZ react to Trump shooting, Biden uncertainty

Borowitz Reports repeats: New Conspiracy Theory Links Wide Availability of Guns to People Getting Shot

MUSIC

Anything Goes –  Peter Sprague featuring Rebecca Jade

Look At Me, I’m MTG!– A Randy Rainbow Song Parody

John Mayall, British Blues-Rock Legend and 2024 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Inductee, Dies at 90. Room To Move

Flivver Ten Million  by Frederick Converse, performance is by the Buffalo Philharmonic,

Coverville 1495: Cover Stories for Marc Cohn and Simple Minds and  1496: The Trevor Horn Cover Story II

The Great Curve – Talking Heads

K-Chuck Radio: Gaze into the crystal ball …

Coast -Kim Deal

You’ve Got To Hide Your Love Away–  Peter Sprague, featuring Allison Adams Tucker.

Patterns – Laura Marling

Several versions of Sit Down, You’re Rocking The Boat here and here and here and here (1992 Tonys – Nicely-Nicely (Walter Bobbie) plus Nathan Lane and J.K. Simmons) and here  and here (current London revival) and probably more here

Knee Deep Blues – Caleb Caudle:

Breath Out – Dawn Richard and Spencer Zahn –

This LOST 1986 Song Went Viral…But for Years-NOBODY Knew WHO Sang it—UNTIL Today!–Professor of Rock

Project 2025: Personnel and staffing

Christian nationalism

I have looked at Google Trends. Since the week of June 3, there has been a definite upward trend in the number of searches for the term Project 2025, “the extreme right-wing agenda for the next Republican administration.” That’s good. Maybe djt is one of them since he claimed he doesn’t know about it but is opposed to many of its aspects. How are both possible? 

Leading up to the election, I’ve decided to reiterate its tenets. Regarding Personnel and staffing, “Project 2025’s goals for staffing the next GOP presidency reflect Trump’s idea to gut civil service staff and replace them with potentially tens of thousands of MAGA loyalists. The New York Times describes this plot for a second Trump administration as an ‘expansion of presidential power over the machinery of government’ that would reshape “the structure of the executive branch to concentrate far greater authority directly in his hands.”

When I first searched for Schedule F, I discovered the IRS Form 1040 to report farm income and expenses. That’s not what we’re looking for.

Here’s an article from The Brookings Institute, a hardly liberal think tank, titled The Risks of Schedule F for Administrative Capacity and Government Accountability.

“Weeks before the 2020 election, President Trump unveiled an executive order that would have created a new class of political appointee, Schedule F. The order would have allowed a president to turn any career official with a policy advisory role into a political appointee, removing job protection and opening the door to vastly politicize the federal workforce.

“President Biden rescinded the order, but Trump has made it a central feature of his re-election campaign as part of his effort to take control of “the deep state…” 

“Deep state”

“First, let’s understand the scale of what is being proposed. Among developed countries, the U.S. is an outlier in terms of its existing level of politicization. We use about 4,000 political appointees to run the executive branch, an increase from about 3,000 in the early 1990s… 

“Supporters of Schedule F have proposed converting 50,000 career civil servants into political appointee status. That is a massive degree of additional politicization and the most fundamental change to the civil service system since its inception in 1883. Increasing the number of political appointees would create a new venue where political polarization would undermine the quality of governance by replacing moderates with extremists.”

Or, put another way, the cabal would replace people who know how to do their jobs with political hacks. Naturally, the National Federation of Federal Employees (NFFE) supports legislation to stop it. Unsurprisingly, it was introduced in the House in February 2023, where it languishes.   

Pushback

However, back in April 2024, the “Office of Personnel Management issued the final version of its regulation meant to safeguard the civil service from the return of a Trump-era policy that sought to convert most federal employees to at-will workers.”

In a statement, Joe Biden said, “‘My administration is announcing protections for 2.2 million career civil servants from political interference, to guarantee that they can carry out their responsibilities in the best interest of the American people’… Day in and day out, career civil servants provide the expertise and continuity necessary for our democracy to function.”

“The final rule states that an employee’s civil service protections cannot be taken away by an involuntary move from the competitive service to the excepted service; clarifies that the ’employees in confidential, policy-determining, policy-making or policy-advocating positions’ terminology used to define Schedule F employees means noncareer, political appointments and won’t be applied to career civil servants; and sets up an appeals process with the Merit Systems Protection Board for any employees involuntarily transferred from the competitive service to the excepted service and within the excepted service.”

So djt and his people could reinstate Schedule F, but implementing it would be more difficult.

Christian nationalism

Another tenet of Project 2025 is Christian nationalism. It claims that “centralized government ‘subverts’ families by working to ‘replace people’s natural loves and loyalties with unnatural ones,’ utilizing the biblical language of natural versus the unnatural.” 

More specifically, “Former Trump official Jonathan Berry’s chapter on the Department of Labor states that ‘the Judeo-Christian tradition, stretching back to Genesis, has always recognized fruitful work as integral to human dignity, as service to God, neighbor, and family’ and claims that Biden’s administration is ‘hostile to people of faith.'” 

As a person of faith, I trust my antipathy for Christian nationalism and Christofascism is abundantly clear. 

Ramblin' with Roger
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